In the Red Zone: AFC, NFC South breakdown Published Sept. 10, 2010 By Bryan Swink Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst Public Affairs JOINT BASE MCGUIRE-DIX-LAKEHURST, N.J. -- The season is finally upon us. I wrap up my breakdown of the NFL teams this week as I look at the AFC and NFC South divisions. AFC South Houston Texans The Texans are one of the teams I see making a big jump in production this year, on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Matt Schaub threw for an NFL-leading 4,770 yards last year and is quickly becoming an elite passer in the league. This feat is easy to accomplish when Andre Johnson is catching more than 100 passes in a season. He is the big threat offensive weapon that the Texans can't afford to lose. The running game is their achilles heel, ranking 30th in the league in 2009. The defense is young and talented, getting better each year. This year they will have one of the better defenses in the league against the run, but they are vulnerable to the pass. The Texans drafted cornerback Kareem Jackson to help add to their secondary. I don't know if this is the year they step up and become an elite unit due to the difficulty of their schedule. They not only have to face the Colts twice but will match up against the Chargers, Ravens and entire NFC East. Good Luck! Swink's 2010 prediction: 9-7 Indianapolis Colts Any team in which Peyton Manning is the starting quarterback, they will make the playoffs. He is a future hall-of-famer and possibly the most football-intelligent mind in the game. They were the worst running team in the league last year, but why take the ball out of Manning's hands? He will make any receiver on his team better. Expect another hardly-used running game and a 4,500-yard passing season for the 10-time Pro Bowl quarterback. It seems like the defense's success rides on the health of safety Bob Sanders. When he is out of the lineup, the defense can't seem to make a play. If the Colts expect to repeat as AFC champions, they need Sanders. Expect defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to have another great season knocking around opposing quarterbacks. Swink's 2010 prediction: 13-3 Tennessee Titans The big question for the Titans is the play of quarterback Vince Young. He has established himself as a winner, but struggles to find accuracy in his passes. One thing helping is having the best running back in the league, Chris Johnson. He rushed for more than 2,000 yards last season and has already predicted he will hit the unprecedented number of 2,500 yards for 2010. He is amazingly fast and will be the difference in the Titans season. Their defense struggled last year against the pass, giving up 258 yards per game. The secondary drastically needs to step up their game since they will be competing against high-powered passing offenses. They will have an above .500 season up until week twelve when they have to face the Texans and Colts in four of their last six games. Ouch! What a way to end the season. Swink's 2010 prediction: 7-9 Jacksonville Jaguars The Jaguars are a below-average team staying afloat due to their power-house running back Maurice Jones-Drew. He rushed for almost 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. Unfortunately, I don't see the passing game getting much better this year. They released veteran Tory Holt and are expecting good things from second-year receiver Mike Thomas. This team had a hard time putting opponents away last year, achieving only one victory with a two-possession lead. The defense is a below-average one that will again struggle against the pass. They allowed 235 yards per game, ranking 27th in the league. Unfortunately for Jaguar fans, this will not be a play-off season. Get used to seeing your team at the bottom of the division. Swink's 2010 prediction: 5-11 NFC South Atlanta Falcons Two of the Falcon's main contributors on offense were banged up and never fully healthy to end their 2009 campaign. Quarterback Matt Ryan is now fully recovered from turf toe and running back Michael Turner has said he feels better than ever entering this season. If these two are healthy on the field, the Falcons will be a scary offense. Unfortunately, this won't be enough to overthrow the Saints atop the division, but they will fight hard for a wild-card berth. The defensive front-seven for the Falcons does a decent job of stopping the run, but the real question for this team is their secondary play. They gave up more than 240 yards per game last year. If they want to have any chance of competing with the Saints for the division title, this needs to be improved. Swink's 2010 prediction: 10-6 Carolina Panthers I'm sure Panthers fans are excited to see former quarterback Jake Delhomme leave town after his awful 2009 season. Matt Moore temporarily steps in for him while the team grooms rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen. Even though Moore put up good numbers at the end of last season, I believe there is too much hype surrounding the young Clausen. Moore will be walking on egg shells throughout the season. My advice: hand the ball off to their two-headed running back combo and throw the ball deep to receiver Steve Smith - Accurately, not like Delhomme. The defensive secondary ranked 4th in the league last year, allowing only 191 passing yards per game. The front seven on the other hand is a different story. They lost defensive end Julius Peppers, which drastically decreases the talent level on defense. Without his ability to apply pressure on the quarterback, the secondary could struggle as well. This doesn't favor the Panthers when facing the Falcons and Saints twice. Swink's 2010 prediction: 7-9 New Orleans Saints The Saints are poised for another title run. Most of the same personnel from their championship team have returned and most are still in their prime. Quarterback Drew Brees is coming off a stellar 2009 season where he threw for 4,388 yards, 34 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. The offense ranked first in the league last year in total offense and shouldn't have any problem putting up similar numbers this year. The defense, on the other hand, didn't have to perform as well as the offense did. You don't see many Super Bowl-winning teams with the 25th-ranked defense. They didn't need to be one of the top in the league due to the high-powered offense. Who needs to keep teams under 23 points per game when your offense is scoring over 30 each week? Swink's 2010 prediction: 14-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers This is a bad team! Second year quarterback Josh Freeman looks to improve from his 2009 campaign when he came in midway through the season to replace Josh Johnson. Expect opposing defenses to put a ton of pressure on the young quarterback and focus most of their efforts shutting down running back Cadillac Williams. Williams only had three games in which he amassed more than 80 yards and was limited to just four touchdowns. Don't expect to see fireworks from this offense this year. What could be worse than their running game? The defense's ability to stop the run. They ranked last in the league last year giving up almost 160 yards per game on the ground. They did however spend their first two draft picks on defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price to help plug up the middle. This team has a lot of work ahead of them to become a respectable team in this league. Don't expect to see it this year. I think this team has a great shot at a perfect 0-16 season. Swink's 2010 prediction: 1-15 I am finally done breaking down the teams! Now it's finally time to get week one underway. Enjoy Sunday! If you want to argue my predictions or any point I made, please e-mail me at bryan.swink-02@mcguire.af.mil. Give an explanation of why you disagree and some responses will be posted in next week's column with, of course, my explanation of why you are wrong.