An official website of the United States government
A .mil website belongs to an official U.S. Department of Defense organization in the United States.
A lock (lock ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .mil website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

News Search

In the Red Zone: NFC, AFC championship games

  • Published
  • By Bryan Swink
  • Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst Public Affairs
JOINT BASE MCGUIRE-DIX-LAKEHURST, N.J. --  We are finally down to the final four teams. I was a bit surprised to see both No. 1 seeds get knocked out at home, but both the Packers and Jets played great football. I was glad to see the Seahawks get exploited and it proved to people they didn't deserve to be in that position, much less in the playoffs at all. This week, I'm breaking down the matchups based on advantages in different aspects of the game. Let's see who will be traveling to Dallas for Super Bowl XLV.

Green Bay at Chicago

Looking at the quarterback situation in this game, I have to give the edge to Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He has been on fire lately and jumped to the third best quarterback in the league behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, both who are out of the playoffs. Rodgers has thrown for 546 yards and six touchdowns in the two playoff games this season. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is no slouch though. He picked apart the Seahawks last week and has looked comfortable in Mike Martz's offense. After a rough start in Chicago during the 2009 season, Cutler has finally gained timing and chemistry with his receivers. I give the edge to the Packers.

The running game is a different story. I knew Packers running back James Stark's hype would simmer down a bit after his explosion against a poor Eagles defense two weeks ago. Last week he averaged 2.6 yards per carry against the Falcons. The Bears have a much nastier defense than both of the previous teams and will make him and Brandon Jackson earn every yard. Bears running back Matt Forte is a powerful runner that has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. During their Week 17 matchup, he had 23 touches and gained 151 yards. I give the edge to the Bears.

I believe the receivers are almost even and the deciding factor is who is throwing them the ball. The Packers have one key receiver in Greg Jennings and many solid threats. The Bears have only two receivers that caught more than 500 yards this season. The upside for Chicago is Matt Forte's talents out of the backfield. He was tied for the lead in receptions for the Bears. The Packers have a much better pass defense which will give Cutler problems. I give the advantage to the Packers.

The Packers have the better overall defense of these two teams. Green Bay have13 interceptions this year to go with 47 sacks. The pass rush that B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews present will force Cutler to make quick decisions. The Packers secondary is much more solid than the Bears, but the bears have a better front seven when it comes to stopping the run. The addition of Julius Peppers to the Bears defensive line will force the Packers to add an extra blocker to take him out of the equation. Defensively, I give the slight edge to the Packers.

Unfortunately for Chicago, they won't be able to stop Aaron Rodgers. They have to be able to stop the run and force predictable situations for the Packers offense. The Bears do have home-field advantage which could pose problems for the Packers offensively. The noise gets a bit loud at Soldier Field. If Aaron Rodgers wants to cement himself as a top quarterback, he has to perform in big games. This by far is the biggest game of his career and I think he's up for the challenge.

Swink's prediction: Packers win on the road

NY Jets at Pittsburgh

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has the edge in the quarterback matchup this week. He has won two AFC championship games which led to two Super Bowl victories. Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has had a tremendous amount of success in the playoffs but has a lot to prove to get to the big game. Both of these quarterbacks will be facing the toughest defense they will have faced all season. The Steelers and Jets are ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league respectively and have given opposing quarterbacks trouble all season. Experience is critical to success and Roethlisberger has it. I give the edge to the Steelers.

The Steelers have a great running game led by Rashard Mendenhall, but the problem is the offensive line blocking for him. Pittsburgh is struggling to find healthy bodies to fill positions up front. The offensive line has to be in sync and on the same page in order for blocking schemes to be effective. This could cost the Steelers greatly down the stretch. The Jets have a solid running game but have slowed over the last half of the season. In their Week 15 game against the Steelers, LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene ran the ball 23 times for 89 yards. In order for them to keep Pittsburgh's defense off balance, they must run the ball effectively. I give the advantage to the Jets.

I think the Jets have a more proven receiving core with a weaker quarterback throwing the ball to them. In comparison, the Steelers have a younger, less experienced receiving core with a seasoned veteran throwing them the ball. In order for receivers to be effective they need to have the ball thrown to them effectively. Again, the situation for the Steelers success is the status of their offensive line. If they can't block effectively, it doesn't give Roethlisberger time to throw the ball which in turn prevents the receivers from getting the ball. Most football games are won in the trenches by the big beasts in the middle. I give the advantage to the Steelers because of who's throwing them the ball.

The Jets have one of the most well-rounded defenses in the league. Over the last two week, they halted Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, both road victories. If they can shut down Roethlisberger, it will be one of the greatest defensive stands I have ever seen. The Steelers on the other hand aren't slouches when it comes to stopping high-powered offenses. They have the best run stopping team in the league which is going to come in handy against the solid run game the Jets present. Their secondary is a bit of a liability, but with Troy Polamalu roaming around, big defensive plays are a strong possibility. I give a slight advantage to the Jets, but home-field advantage could play a large factor in Pittsburg.

Swink's prediction: Jets win on the road

If you want to argue a prediction or point I made, please e-mail me at bryan.swink-02@mcguire.af.mil. Give a detailed explanation of why you disagree and some responses will be posted in next week's column with, of course, my explanation of why you are wrong.